Gastos Casa
19 febrero, 2024
1. Gastos (cálculos antiguos)
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::select(-Tiempo,-link) %>%
dplyr::select(fecha, gasto, monto, gastador,obs) %>% tail(30) %>%
knitr::kable(format = "markdown", size=12)| fecha | gasto | monto | gastador | obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2023 | Aporte Basureros | 10000 | Tami | NA |
| 22/12/2023 | Netflix | 8326 | Tami | NA |
| 22/12/2023 | Diosi | 14700 | Andrés | Antiparasitario |
| 24/12/2023 | Comida | 79633 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 24/12/2023 | Comida | 19950 | Andrés | Empanadas |
| 25/12/2023 | Uber | 5595 | Tami | NA |
| 27/12/2023 | Diosi | 22970 | Andrés | arena |
| 30/12/2023 | Comida | 50000 | Andrés | jumbo la litad de los 97 |
| 2/1/2024 | Electricidad | 55466 | Andrés | pac enel |
| 2/1/2024 | Comida | 44542 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 5/1/2024 | Comida | 9516 | Tami | Burger King pre Maite |
| 5/1/2024 | Comida | 19590 | Tami | Barritas Soul |
| 8/1/2024 | Comida | 57625 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 13/1/2024 | Limpieza alfombras | 60000 | Tami | NA |
| 13/1/2024 | Comida | 33110 | Andrés | NA |
| 15/1/2024 | Comida | 98241 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 17/1/2024 | VTR | 21990 | Andrés | NA |
| 22/1/2024 | Netflix | 8304 | Tami | NA |
| 22/1/2024 | Comida | 44016 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 23/1/2024 | Comida | 7500 | Andrés | NA |
| 27/1/2024 | Jardinero | 40000 | Tami | NA |
| 29/1/2024 | Comida | 65786 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 30/1/2024 | Electricidad | 55759 | Andrés | NA |
| 3/2/2024 | donación | 50000 | Andrés | NA |
| 4/2/2024 | Comida | 46309 | Andrés | NA |
| 5/2/2024 | Comida | 33079 | Tami | Supermercado |
| 8/2/2024 | Enceres | 35440 | Andrés | casaideas |
| 18/2/2024 | VTR | 21990 | Andrés | NA |
| 31/3/2019 | Comida | 9000 | Andrés | NA |
| 8/9/2019 | Comida | 24588 | Andrés | Super Lider |
#para ver las diferencias depués de la diosi
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador, fecha,.drop = F) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_media=mean(monto,na.rm=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha>"2019-W26",1,0)) %>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=lubridate::week(fecha)) %>%#después de diosi. Junio 24, 2019
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
assign("ts_gastos_casa_week_treat", ., envir = .GlobalEnv)
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Promedio de gasto por gastador", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat,ylim=c(0,75000), xlab="", ylab="")
par(mfrow=c(1,2))
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Antes de Diosi", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat[ts_gastos_casa_week_treat$treat==0,], xlab="", ylab="", ylim=c(0,70000))
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Después de Diosi", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat[ts_gastos_casa_week_treat$treat==1,], xlab="", ylab="",ylim=c(0,70000))
library(ggiraph)
library(scales)
#if( requireNamespace("dplyr", quietly = TRUE)){
gg <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=tsibble::yearweek(fecha)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha_week>"2019 W26",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(week=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "week"))))%>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_week= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha_week, c("%Y-W%V"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador_nombre, fecha_simp) %>%
dplyr::summarise(monto_total=sum(monto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(tooltip= paste0(substr(gastador_nombre,1,1),"=",round(monto_total/1000,2))) %>%
ggplot(aes(hover_css = "fill:none;")) +#, ) +
#stat_summary(geom = "line", fun.y = median, size = 1, alpha=0.5, aes(color="blue")) +
geom_line(aes(x = fecha_simp, y = monto_total, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre)),size=1,alpha=.5) +
ggiraph::geom_point_interactive(aes(x = fecha_simp, y = monto_total, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre),tooltip=tooltip),size = 1) +
#geom_text(aes(x = fech_ing_qrt, y = perc_dup-0.05, label = paste0(n)), vjust = -1,hjust = 0, angle=45, size=3) +
# guides(color = F)+
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Semanas y Meses", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi; Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") + ggtitle( "Figura 4. Gastos por Gastador") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
scale_x_yearweek(date_breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35), legend.position='bottom')+
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
# x <- girafe(ggobj = gg)
# x <- girafe_options(x = x,
# opts_hover(css = "stroke:red;fill:orange") )
# if( interactive() ) print(x)
#}
tooltip_css <- "background-color:gray;color:white;font-style:italic;padding:10px;border-radius:10px 20px 10px 20px;"
#ggiraph(code = {print(gg)}, tooltip_extra_css = tooltip_css, tooltip_opacity = .75 )
x <- girafe(ggobj = gg)
x <- girafe_options(x,
opts_zoom(min = 1, max = 3), opts_hover(css =tooltip_css))xplot<-Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(month=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "month"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(month)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto)/1000) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = month, y = gasto_total)) +
geom_point()+
geom_line(size=1) +
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-03-23"),linetype = "dashed", color="red") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses/Año", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi") +
ggtitle( "Figura. Suma de Gastos por Mes") +
scale_x_date(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 month", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 45))
plotly::ggplotly(plot) plot2<-Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(day)%>%
summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto)/1000) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = day, y = gasto_total)) +
geom_line(size=1) +
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2020-03-23"),linetype = "dashed", color="red") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses/Año", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi") +
ggtitle( "Figura. Suma de Gastos por Día") +
scale_x_date(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 45))
plotly::ggplotly(plot2) tsData <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(day)%>%
summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=case_when(day>as.Date("2019-06-02")~1,TRUE~0))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=case_when(day>as.Date("2020-03-10")~covid+1,TRUE~covid))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=as.factor(covid))%>%
data.frame()tsData_gastos <-ts(tsData$gasto_total, frequency=7)
mstsData_gastos <- forecast::msts(Gastos_casa$monto, seasonal.periods=c(7,30))
tsData_gastos = decompose(tsData_gastos)
#plot(tsData_Santiago, title="Descomposición del número de casos confirmados para Santiago")
forecast::autoplot(tsData_gastos, main="Descomposición de los Gastos Diarios")+
theme_bw()+ labs(x="Weeks")
tsdata_gastos_trend<-cbind(tsData,trend=as.vector(tsData_gastos$trend))%>% na.omit()#tsData_gastos$trend
#Using the inputted variables, a Type-2 Sum Squares ANCOVA Lagged Dependent Variable model is fitted which estimates the difference in means between interrupted and non-interrupted time periods, while accounting for the lag of the dependent variable and any further specified covariates.
#Typically such analyses use Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to handle the serial dependence of the residuals of a linear model, which is estimated either as part of the ARIMA process or through a standard linear regression modeling process [9,17]. All such time series methods enable the effect of the event to be separated from general trends and serial dependencies in time, thereby enabling valid statistical inferences to be made about whether an intervention has had an effect on a time series.
#it uses Type-2 Sum Squares ANCOVA Lagged Dependent Variable model
#ITSA model da cuenta de observaciones autocorrelacionadas e impactos dinámicos mediante una regresión de deltas en rezagados. Una vez que se incorporan en el modelo, se controlan.
#residual autocorrelation assumptions
#TSA allows the model to account for baseline levels and trends present in the data therefore allowing us to attribute significant changes to the interruption
#RDestimate(all~agecell,data=metro_region,cutpoint = 21)
tsdata_gastos_trend<-cbind(tsData,trend=as.vector(tsData_gastos$trend))%>% na.omit()
itsa_metro_region_quar2<-
its.analysis::itsa.model(time = "day", depvar = "trend",data=tsdata_gastos_trend,
interrupt_var = "covid",
alpha = 0.05,no.plots = F, bootstrap = TRUE, Reps = 10000, print = F) 
print(itsa_metro_region_quar2)## [[1]]
## [1] "ITSA Model Fit"
##
## $aov.result
## Anova Table (Type II tests)
##
## Response: depvar
## Sum Sq Df F value Pr(>F)
## interrupt_var 8.6529e+08 2 8.1732 3e-04 ***
## lag_depvar 9.7333e+10 1 1838.7388 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals 3.5360e+10 668
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## $tukey.result
## Tukey multiple comparisons of means
## 95% family-wise confidence level
##
## Fit: stats::aov(formula = x$depvar ~ x$interrupt_var)
##
## $`x$interrupt_var`
## diff lwr upr p adj
## 1-0 7228.838 942.4045 13515.27 0.0193841
## 2-0 29633.255 23930.5965 35335.91 0.0000000
## 2-1 22404.417 19051.6989 25757.13 0.0000000
##
##
## $data
## depvar interrupt_var lag_depvar
## 2 19269.29 0 16010.00
## 3 24139.00 0 19269.29
## 4 23816.14 0 24139.00
## 5 26510.14 0 23816.14
## 6 23456.71 0 26510.14
## 7 24276.71 0 23456.71
## 8 18818.71 0 24276.71
## 9 18517.14 0 18818.71
## 10 15475.29 0 18517.14
## 11 16365.29 0 15475.29
## 12 12621.29 0 16365.29
## 13 12679.86 0 12621.29
## 14 13440.71 0 12679.86
## 15 15382.86 0 13440.71
## 16 13459.71 0 15382.86
## 17 14644.14 0 13459.71
## 18 13927.00 0 14644.14
## 19 22034.57 0 13927.00
## 20 20986.00 0 22034.57
## 21 20390.57 0 20986.00
## 22 22554.14 0 20390.57
## 23 21782.57 0 22554.14
## 24 22529.57 0 21782.57
## 25 24642.71 0 22529.57
## 26 17692.29 0 24642.71
## 27 19668.29 0 17692.29
## 28 28640.00 0 19668.29
## 29 28706.00 0 28640.00
## 30 28331.57 0 28706.00
## 31 25617.86 0 28331.57
## 32 27223.29 0 25617.86
## 33 31622.57 0 27223.29
## 34 32021.43 0 31622.57
## 35 33634.57 0 32021.43
## 36 30784.86 0 33634.57
## 37 34770.57 0 30784.86
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## 277 63285.29 2 63044.86
## 278 61395.43 2 63285.29
## 279 67969.43 2 61395.43
## 280 60792.57 2 67969.43
## 281 56859.14 2 60792.57
## 282 44899.43 2 56859.14
## 283 43064.14 2 44899.43
## 284 62790.29 2 43064.14
## 285 69120.71 2 62790.29
## 286 69589.43 2 69120.71
## 287 66633.29 2 69589.43
## 288 65588.57 2 66633.29
## 289 70168.57 2 65588.57
## 290 74644.71 2 70168.57
## 291 52891.00 2 74644.71
## 292 41560.57 2 52891.00
## 293 34704.86 2 41560.57
## 294 46520.00 2 34704.86
## 295 50231.00 2 46520.00
## 296 49216.71 2 50231.00
## 297 76914.86 2 49216.71
## 298 83720.71 2 76914.86
## 299 84485.00 2 83720.71
## 300 89765.00 2 84485.00
## 301 87702.86 2 89765.00
## 302 82013.86 2 87702.86
## 303 85982.43 2 82013.86
## 304 57248.43 2 85982.43
## 305 52968.43 2 57248.43
## 306 52601.86 2 52968.43
## 307 45493.29 2 52601.86
## 308 42298.86 2 45493.29
## 309 46423.71 2 42298.86
## 310 37898.00 2 46423.71
## 311 36435.14 2 37898.00
## 312 30209.57 2 36435.14
## 313 34541.86 2 30209.57
## 314 33604.71 2 34541.86
## 315 37990.71 2 33604.71
## 316 35683.43 2 37990.71
## 317 65201.86 2 35683.43
## 318 62730.57 2 65201.86
## 319 64589.14 2 62730.57
## 320 73744.86 2 64589.14
## 321 76477.71 2 73744.86
## 322 105647.43 2 76477.71
## 323 103790.29 2 105647.43
## 324 76122.29 2 103790.29
## 325 74746.14 2 76122.29
## 326 72865.71 2 74746.14
## 327 63652.57 2 72865.71
## 328 60358.29 2 63652.57
## 329 25957.14 2 60358.29
## 330 30178.43 2 25957.14
## 331 30681.57 2 30178.43
## 332 33337.29 2 30681.57
## 333 32582.71 2 33337.29
## 334 39184.43 2 32582.71
## 335 40415.71 2 39184.43
## 336 34975.43 2 40415.71
## 337 34076.14 2 34975.43
## 338 34221.14 2 34076.14
## 339 28862.57 2 34221.14
## 340 35729.86 2 28862.57
## 341 36489.29 2 35729.86
## 342 36785.14 2 36489.29
## 343 37787.71 2 36785.14
## 344 39832.14 2 37787.71
## 345 41917.86 2 39832.14
## 346 41633.57 2 41917.86
## 347 33557.00 2 41633.57
## 348 22759.57 2 33557.00
## 349 28877.86 2 22759.57
## 350 27574.00 2 28877.86
## 351 27104.71 2 27574.00
## 352 24376.14 2 27104.71
## 353 29732.29 2 24376.14
## 354 34030.00 2 29732.29
## 355 39139.71 2 34030.00
## 356 37066.57 2 39139.71
## 357 38509.29 2 37066.57
## 358 40957.29 2 38509.29
## 359 49423.00 2 40957.29
## 360 50053.29 2 49423.00
## 361 50284.14 2 50053.29
## 362 53103.86 2 50284.14
## 363 50223.00 2 53103.86
## 364 49587.14 2 50223.00
## 365 41167.71 2 49587.14
## 366 37958.71 2 41167.71
## 367 33582.29 2 37958.71
## 368 31039.43 2 33582.29
## 369 26526.57 2 31039.43
## 370 34869.43 2 26526.57
## 371 37487.43 2 34869.43
## 372 46514.43 2 37487.43
## 373 39613.43 2 46514.43
## 374 38980.57 2 39613.43
## 375 37306.14 2 38980.57
## 376 36771.29 2 37306.14
## 377 26317.00 2 36771.29
## 378 31580.71 2 26317.00
## 379 23626.57 2 31580.71
## 380 33035.71 2 23626.57
## 381 44864.57 2 33035.71
## 382 48946.14 2 44864.57
## 383 46969.57 2 48946.14
## 384 49249.57 2 46969.57
## 385 56370.14 2 49249.57
## 386 67228.71 2 56370.14
## 387 59457.29 2 67228.71
## 388 53124.71 2 59457.29
## 389 52814.14 2 53124.71
## 390 61262.00 2 52814.14
## 391 61861.14 2 61262.00
## 392 71784.71 2 61861.14
## 393 59313.29 2 71784.71
## 394 61107.00 2 59313.29
## 395 60603.43 2 61107.00
## 396 60012.57 2 60603.43
## 397 58280.43 2 60012.57
## 398 56862.71 2 58280.43
## 399 41704.43 2 56862.71
## 400 51533.00 2 41704.43
## 401 50388.71 2 51533.00
## 402 49205.29 2 50388.71
## 403 56533.29 2 49205.29
## 404 47996.14 2 56533.29
## 405 47207.57 2 47996.14
## 406 45292.00 2 47207.57
## 407 40343.43 2 45292.00
## 408 39004.86 2 40343.43
## 409 36788.43 2 39004.86
## 410 30027.57 2 36788.43
## 411 39040.14 2 30027.57
## 412 42390.14 2 39040.14
## 413 36291.14 2 42390.14
## 414 30668.29 2 36291.14
## 415 47693.00 2 30668.29
## 416 52094.43 2 47693.00
## 417 56592.57 2 52094.43
## 418 47971.43 2 56592.57
## 419 43762.43 2 47971.43
## 420 42246.71 2 43762.43
## 421 46352.43 2 42246.71
## 422 33094.86 2 46352.43
## 423 32784.86 2 33094.86
## 424 26212.43 2 32784.86
## 425 32611.57 2 26212.43
## 426 42144.86 2 32611.57
## 427 50034.86 2 42144.86
## 428 46332.00 2 50034.86
## 429 42976.29 2 46332.00
## 430 39456.29 2 42976.29
## 431 39328.29 2 39456.29
## 432 35296.14 2 39328.29
## 433 30875.43 2 35296.14
## 434 27709.00 2 30875.43
## 435 29513.29 2 27709.00
## 436 31630.43 2 29513.29
## 437 29346.14 2 31630.43
## 438 34916.86 2 29346.14
## 439 42020.86 2 34916.86
## 440 38303.00 2 42020.86
## 441 37966.43 2 38303.00
## 442 41408.14 2 37966.43
## 443 38988.14 2 41408.14
## 444 43555.29 2 38988.14
## 445 38114.00 2 43555.29
## 446 27847.86 2 38114.00
## 447 26517.00 2 27847.86
## 448 39518.29 2 26517.00
## 449 39153.71 2 39518.29
## 450 45623.14 2 39153.71
## 451 40627.43 2 45623.14
## 452 41027.71 2 40627.43
## 453 42882.86 2 41027.71
## 454 47139.43 2 42882.86
## 455 35547.57 2 47139.43
## 456 41099.00 2 35547.57
## 457 35859.57 2 41099.00
## 458 44524.57 2 35859.57
## 459 48554.29 2 44524.57
## 460 51554.29 2 48554.29
## 461 47810.29 2 51554.29
## 462 50490.00 2 47810.29
## 463 50720.71 2 50490.00
## 464 52720.71 2 50720.71
## 465 52145.57 2 52720.71
## 466 55515.57 2 52145.57
## 467 52457.00 2 55515.57
## 468 58239.57 2 52457.00
## 469 50523.57 2 58239.57
## 470 47788.57 2 50523.57
## 471 46170.00 2 47788.57
## 472 42305.57 2 46170.00
## 473 46605.57 2 42305.57
## 474 55149.57 2 46605.57
## 475 48769.57 2 55149.57
## 476 50719.43 2 48769.57
## 477 44753.71 2 50719.43
## 478 42898.00 2 44753.71
## 479 46141.14 2 42898.00
## 480 34022.57 2 46141.14
## 481 26651.86 2 34022.57
## 482 28791.86 2 26651.86
## 483 31879.00 2 28791.86
## 484 33584.71 2 31879.00
## 485 34690.43 2 33584.71
## 486 27410.43 2 34690.43
## 487 41755.00 2 27410.43
## 488 49379.57 2 41755.00
## 489 57198.86 2 49379.57
## 490 51144.57 2 57198.86
## 491 56677.43 2 51144.57
## 492 65416.43 2 56677.43
## 493 69779.71 2 65416.43
## 494 54046.00 2 69779.71
## 495 43259.57 2 54046.00
## 496 40998.57 2 43259.57
## 497 41368.57 2 40998.57
## 498 42274.29 2 41368.57
## 499 35962.71 2 42274.29
## 500 38709.00 2 35962.71
## 501 44778.14 2 38709.00
## 502 51282.43 2 44778.14
## 503 52094.86 2 51282.43
## 504 52221.43 2 52094.86
## 505 45011.43 2 52221.43
## 506 46545.43 2 45011.43
## 507 42263.00 2 46545.43
## 508 45417.43 2 42263.00
## 509 45034.71 2 45417.43
## 510 37840.57 2 45034.71
## 511 39135.43 2 37840.57
## 512 38191.14 2 39135.43
## 513 39456.86 2 38191.14
## 514 42479.14 2 39456.86
## 515 34282.57 2 42479.14
## 516 28878.43 2 34282.57
## 517 56227.14 2 28878.43
## 518 65569.43 2 56227.14
## 519 69751.29 2 65569.43
## 520 62171.71 2 69751.29
## 521 63705.14 2 62171.71
## 522 79257.86 2 63705.14
## 523 87244.71 2 79257.86
## 524 58568.00 2 87244.71
## 525 52695.29 2 58568.00
## 526 48911.00 2 52695.29
## 527 53924.00 2 48911.00
## 528 53358.86 2 53924.00
## 529 42121.14 2 53358.86
## 530 47835.71 2 42121.14
## 531 62329.29 2 47835.71
## 532 56056.86 2 62329.29
## 533 59946.43 2 56056.86
## 534 64511.57 2 59946.43
## 535 61137.43 2 64511.57
## 536 55448.71 2 61137.43
## 537 47964.43 2 55448.71
## 538 46425.71 2 47964.43
## 539 55512.00 2 46425.71
## 540 55226.29 2 55512.00
## 541 46709.14 2 55226.29
## 542 49254.71 2 46709.14
## 543 49056.29 2 49254.71
## 544 49850.57 2 49056.29
## 545 39145.71 2 49850.57
## 546 29799.43 2 39145.71
## 547 34769.86 2 29799.43
## 548 44061.57 2 34769.86
## 549 43829.14 2 44061.57
## 550 45782.00 2 43829.14
## 551 38924.57 2 45782.00
## 552 49242.43 2 38924.57
## 553 50565.00 2 49242.43
## 554 38864.43 2 50565.00
## 555 49786.71 2 38864.43
## 556 58787.86 2 49786.71
## 557 58060.86 2 58787.86
## 558 62179.43 2 58060.86
## 559 57333.86 2 62179.43
## 560 70797.00 2 57333.86
## 561 89901.71 2 70797.00
## 562 78558.14 2 89901.71
## 563 65466.00 2 78558.14
## 564 70525.00 2 65466.00
## 565 68377.86 2 70525.00
## 566 69736.29 2 68377.86
## 567 60085.86 2 69736.29
## 568 41757.00 2 60085.86
## 569 49780.29 2 41757.00
## 570 56540.29 2 49780.29
## 571 57894.29 2 56540.29
## 572 60270.29 2 57894.29
## 573 61011.00 2 60270.29
## 574 57721.43 2 61011.00
## 575 71741.00 2 57721.43
## 576 59576.00 2 71741.00
## 577 52390.29 2 59576.00
## 578 61092.29 2 52390.29
## 579 62814.00 2 61092.29
## 580 54908.29 2 62814.00
## 581 62082.00 2 54908.29
## 582 57017.71 2 62082.00
## 583 53634.43 2 57017.71
## 584 69169.00 2 53634.43
## 585 52488.14 2 69169.00
## 586 60895.57 2 52488.14
## 587 59856.57 2 60895.57
## 588 52670.00 2 59856.57
## 589 51874.57 2 52670.00
## 590 52190.57 2 51874.57
## 591 41562.43 2 52190.57
## 592 44764.14 2 41562.43
## 593 38612.71 2 44764.14
## 594 43473.14 2 38612.71
## 595 53505.00 2 43473.14
## 596 45870.86 2 53505.00
## 597 52578.00 2 45870.86
## 598 55300.00 2 52578.00
## 599 61789.71 2 55300.00
## 600 57391.71 2 61789.71
## 601 62902.29 2 57391.71
## 602 53250.43 2 62902.29
## 603 55402.57 2 53250.43
## 604 56291.29 2 55402.57
## 605 58933.57 2 56291.29
## 606 59590.71 2 58933.57
## 607 59065.00 2 59590.71
## 608 52399.57 2 59065.00
## 609 60483.43 2 52399.57
## 610 58262.71 2 60483.43
## 611 54939.71 2 58262.71
## 612 51169.00 2 54939.71
## 613 43113.29 2 51169.00
## 614 56289.71 2 43113.29
## 615 60739.86 2 56289.71
## 616 50363.14 2 60739.86
## 617 62270.86 2 50363.14
## 618 67061.57 2 62270.86
## 619 59609.00 2 67061.57
## 620 85054.00 2 59609.00
## 621 68023.29 2 85054.00
## 622 59242.29 2 68023.29
## 623 61535.14 2 59242.29
## 624 56215.86 2 61535.14
## 625 45152.29 2 56215.86
## 626 57409.57 2 45152.29
## 627 35151.43 2 57409.57
## 628 34991.43 2 35151.43
## 629 45944.71 2 34991.43
## 630 57944.71 2 45944.71
## 631 55706.29 2 57944.71
## 632 88593.71 2 55706.29
## 633 77359.43 2 88593.71
## 634 79878.71 2 77359.43
## 635 81753.00 2 79878.71
## 636 75716.00 2 81753.00
## 637 67381.43 2 75716.00
## 638 63528.57 2 67381.43
## 639 49682.86 2 63528.57
## 640 47815.00 2 49682.86
## 641 46546.14 2 47815.00
## 642 44808.71 2 46546.14
## 643 42959.57 2 44808.71
## 644 46023.86 2 42959.57
## 645 51309.57 2 46023.86
## 646 68447.29 2 51309.57
## 647 84959.29 2 68447.29
## 648 81666.29 2 84959.29
## 649 82700.86 2 81666.29
## 650 89422.14 2 82700.86
## 651 104812.71 2 89422.14
## 652 98812.71 2 104812.71
## 653 64779.86 2 98812.71
## 654 61862.86 2 64779.86
## 655 58376.43 2 61862.86
## 656 59503.57 2 58376.43
## 657 55429.43 2 59503.57
## 658 44454.57 2 55429.43
## 659 47184.00 2 44454.57
## 660 52126.71 2 47184.00
## 661 51202.00 2 52126.71
## 662 64437.14 2 51202.00
## 663 64297.14 2 64437.14
## 664 64628.57 2 64297.14
## 665 51413.14 2 64628.57
## 666 52969.43 2 51413.14
## 667 54135.29 2 52969.43
## 668 48799.43 2 54135.29
## 669 41907.86 2 48799.43
## 670 45382.00 2 41907.86
## 671 42633.29 2 45382.00
## 672 46624.71 2 42633.29
## 673 44051.86 2 46624.71
##
## $alpha
## [1] 0.05
##
## $itsa.result
## [1] "Significant variation between time periods with chosen alpha"
##
## $group.means
## interrupt_var count mean s.d.
## 1 0 37 22066.04 6308.636
## 2 1 120 29463.10 9187.258
## 3 2 516 51867.52 15344.241
##
## $dependent
## [1] 19269.29 24139.00 23816.14 26510.14 23456.71 24276.71 18818.71
## [8] 18517.14 15475.29 16365.29 12621.29 12679.86 13440.71 15382.86
## [15] 13459.71 14644.14 13927.00 22034.57 20986.00 20390.57 22554.14
## [22] 21782.57 22529.57 24642.71 17692.29 19668.29 28640.00 28706.00
## [29] 28331.57 25617.86 27223.29 31622.57 32021.43 33634.57 30784.86
## [36] 34770.57 38443.00 35073.00 31422.29 30103.29 19319.29 27926.29
## [43] 30715.43 31962.29 39790.14 39211.57 44548.57 49398.00 41039.00
## [50] 34821.29 29123.57 21275.71 28476.14 24561.86 20323.57 25370.00
## [57] 26811.86 27151.86 27623.29 22896.57 41889.29 44000.14 38558.00
## [64] 43373.86 49001.00 61213.29 58939.57 42046.86 39191.71 42646.43
## [71] 36121.57 30915.57 20273.43 23938.29 19274.29 21662.29 15819.00
## [78] 18126.14 17240.71 16127.71 13917.14 15379.86 19510.14 24567.29
## [85] 25700.43 25729.00 26435.00 31157.14 29818.43 30962.43 28746.71
## [92] 27830.71 28252.14 28717.57 21365.43 24816.86 16838.57 15529.14
## [99] 13286.29 13629.43 14404.86 19524.86 18475.71 22495.00 22254.57
## [106] 24173.29 27466.43 24602.43 20531.14 20846.43 23875.71 36312.71
## [113] 34244.00 36347.43 39779.71 42018.71 39372.57 33444.00 29255.86
## [120] 31640.14 29671.14 31023.71 39723.43 39314.14 38239.86 34649.43
## [127] 36688.43 42867.57 42226.86 32155.14 33603.00 37254.43 33145.57
## [134] 31299.43 30252.00 26310.71 27929.86 27666.14 25017.57 27335.00
## [141] 25760.71 18436.86 21906.00 19418.14 22826.14 23444.29 25264.86
## [148] 25473.29 27366.86 28855.86 32326.86 27141.43 26297.71 23499.14
## [155] 30246.29 39931.86 38020.43 35004.00 40750.86 42363.29 46273.57
## [162] 41083.29 35711.29 41921.71 60583.29 63115.57 61300.14 57666.43
## [169] 55834.00 58927.71 57810.57 48987.14 52219.29 56503.57 56545.00
## [176] 64705.57 53833.29 50114.00 39592.43 29907.29 33923.29 45489.00
## [183] 44866.29 51680.57 58257.00 70600.57 76648.00 69430.14 69651.57
## [190] 77745.14 72795.86 67670.71 55357.86 48524.00 50154.43 45111.57
## [197] 36147.00 43501.57 41472.43 41058.00 41605.57 49382.86 59558.57
## [204] 59134.57 61109.00 63004.43 67344.29 78180.86 69117.86 55597.57
## [211] 49426.14 39119.43 35636.86 39201.14 27777.00 47207.00 55587.29
## [218] 56619.71 82679.86 91259.57 93552.71 102242.71 91884.00 85013.86
## [225] 84535.29 80700.43 79740.57 85163.14 86724.86 80355.00 74875.14
## [232] 81347.00 66062.43 56946.43 47732.14 38129.71 42928.29 45392.57
## [239] 37895.43 30660.29 42430.86 35845.14 40350.43 31494.71 30013.29
## [246] 34197.57 37430.14 26932.43 33729.86 38081.43 44028.00 47139.71
## [253] 46558.86 58350.57 78380.00 78168.29 70510.86 72207.14 67881.00
## [260] 69536.43 62390.71 50113.14 45565.57 45805.29 41348.57 51426.86
## [267] 47160.57 51907.43 49751.43 54407.43 54746.29 61634.57 58926.43
## [274] 69999.29 63044.86 63285.29 61395.43 67969.43 60792.57 56859.14
## [281] 44899.43 43064.14 62790.29 69120.71 69589.43 66633.29 65588.57
## [288] 70168.57 74644.71 52891.00 41560.57 34704.86 46520.00 50231.00
## [295] 49216.71 76914.86 83720.71 84485.00 89765.00 87702.86 82013.86
## [302] 85982.43 57248.43 52968.43 52601.86 45493.29 42298.86 46423.71
## [309] 37898.00 36435.14 30209.57 34541.86 33604.71 37990.71 35683.43
## [316] 65201.86 62730.57 64589.14 73744.86 76477.71 105647.43 103790.29
## [323] 76122.29 74746.14 72865.71 63652.57 60358.29 25957.14 30178.43
## [330] 30681.57 33337.29 32582.71 39184.43 40415.71 34975.43 34076.14
## [337] 34221.14 28862.57 35729.86 36489.29 36785.14 37787.71 39832.14
## [344] 41917.86 41633.57 33557.00 22759.57 28877.86 27574.00 27104.71
## [351] 24376.14 29732.29 34030.00 39139.71 37066.57 38509.29 40957.29
## [358] 49423.00 50053.29 50284.14 53103.86 50223.00 49587.14 41167.71
## [365] 37958.71 33582.29 31039.43 26526.57 34869.43 37487.43 46514.43
## [372] 39613.43 38980.57 37306.14 36771.29 26317.00 31580.71 23626.57
## [379] 33035.71 44864.57 48946.14 46969.57 49249.57 56370.14 67228.71
## [386] 59457.29 53124.71 52814.14 61262.00 61861.14 71784.71 59313.29
## [393] 61107.00 60603.43 60012.57 58280.43 56862.71 41704.43 51533.00
## [400] 50388.71 49205.29 56533.29 47996.14 47207.57 45292.00 40343.43
## [407] 39004.86 36788.43 30027.57 39040.14 42390.14 36291.14 30668.29
## [414] 47693.00 52094.43 56592.57 47971.43 43762.43 42246.71 46352.43
## [421] 33094.86 32784.86 26212.43 32611.57 42144.86 50034.86 46332.00
## [428] 42976.29 39456.29 39328.29 35296.14 30875.43 27709.00 29513.29
## [435] 31630.43 29346.14 34916.86 42020.86 38303.00 37966.43 41408.14
## [442] 38988.14 43555.29 38114.00 27847.86 26517.00 39518.29 39153.71
## [449] 45623.14 40627.43 41027.71 42882.86 47139.43 35547.57 41099.00
## [456] 35859.57 44524.57 48554.29 51554.29 47810.29 50490.00 50720.71
## [463] 52720.71 52145.57 55515.57 52457.00 58239.57 50523.57 47788.57
## [470] 46170.00 42305.57 46605.57 55149.57 48769.57 50719.43 44753.71
## [477] 42898.00 46141.14 34022.57 26651.86 28791.86 31879.00 33584.71
## [484] 34690.43 27410.43 41755.00 49379.57 57198.86 51144.57 56677.43
## [491] 65416.43 69779.71 54046.00 43259.57 40998.57 41368.57 42274.29
## [498] 35962.71 38709.00 44778.14 51282.43 52094.86 52221.43 45011.43
## [505] 46545.43 42263.00 45417.43 45034.71 37840.57 39135.43 38191.14
## [512] 39456.86 42479.14 34282.57 28878.43 56227.14 65569.43 69751.29
## [519] 62171.71 63705.14 79257.86 87244.71 58568.00 52695.29 48911.00
## [526] 53924.00 53358.86 42121.14 47835.71 62329.29 56056.86 59946.43
## [533] 64511.57 61137.43 55448.71 47964.43 46425.71 55512.00 55226.29
## [540] 46709.14 49254.71 49056.29 49850.57 39145.71 29799.43 34769.86
## [547] 44061.57 43829.14 45782.00 38924.57 49242.43 50565.00 38864.43
## [554] 49786.71 58787.86 58060.86 62179.43 57333.86 70797.00 89901.71
## [561] 78558.14 65466.00 70525.00 68377.86 69736.29 60085.86 41757.00
## [568] 49780.29 56540.29 57894.29 60270.29 61011.00 57721.43 71741.00
## [575] 59576.00 52390.29 61092.29 62814.00 54908.29 62082.00 57017.71
## [582] 53634.43 69169.00 52488.14 60895.57 59856.57 52670.00 51874.57
## [589] 52190.57 41562.43 44764.14 38612.71 43473.14 53505.00 45870.86
## [596] 52578.00 55300.00 61789.71 57391.71 62902.29 53250.43 55402.57
## [603] 56291.29 58933.57 59590.71 59065.00 52399.57 60483.43 58262.71
## [610] 54939.71 51169.00 43113.29 56289.71 60739.86 50363.14 62270.86
## [617] 67061.57 59609.00 85054.00 68023.29 59242.29 61535.14 56215.86
## [624] 45152.29 57409.57 35151.43 34991.43 45944.71 57944.71 55706.29
## [631] 88593.71 77359.43 79878.71 81753.00 75716.00 67381.43 63528.57
## [638] 49682.86 47815.00 46546.14 44808.71 42959.57 46023.86 51309.57
## [645] 68447.29 84959.29 81666.29 82700.86 89422.14 104812.71 98812.71
## [652] 64779.86 61862.86 58376.43 59503.57 55429.43 44454.57 47184.00
## [659] 52126.71 51202.00 64437.14 64297.14 64628.57 51413.14 52969.43
## [666] 54135.29 48799.43 41907.86 45382.00 42633.29 46624.71 44051.86
##
## $interrupt_var
## [1] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
## [38] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [75] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [112] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [149] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [186] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [223] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [260] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [297] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [334] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [371] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [408] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [445] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [482] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [519] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [556] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [593] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [630] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [667] 2 2 2 2 2 2
## Levels: 0 1 2
##
## $residuals
## 2 3 4 5 6 7
## 1921.87943 3998.80362 -496.77448 2473.87271 -2887.96856 548.42835
## 8 9 10 11 12 13
## -5612.20655 -1236.97156 -4020.42064 -523.93896 -5030.55489 -1763.85535
## 14 15 16 17 18 19
## -1053.18641 236.99940 -3350.31095 -517.99545 -2250.04178 6472.02915
## 20 21 22 23 24 25
## -1523.69179 -1220.62905 1453.14834 -1172.32648 235.81134 1708.87094
## 26 27 28 29 30 31
## -7052.25020 879.37620 8157.91176 536.30258 105.32047 -2287.55652
## 32 33 34 35 36 37
## 1643.17736 4666.81656 1296.04973 2567.42314 -1664.54781 4763.00636
## 38 39 40 41 42 43
## 4395.22261 -2121.57796 -2884.63420 -1075.43999 -10729.22606 7118.27969
## 44 45 46 47 48 49
## 2532.32676 1389.24598 8148.70637 862.66471 6695.42627 6971.72991
## 50 51 52 53 54 55
## -5542.60879 -4597.73150 -4967.66161 -7933.30792 5991.72832 -4092.40176
## 56 57 58 59 60 61
## -4976.64633 3701.44985 819.16454 -76.32222 103.76993 -5026.89822
## 62 63 64 65 66 67
## 18016.00436 3852.53977 -3398.33710 6080.73892 7581.30949 14971.85504
## 68 69 70 71 72 73
## 2233.77722 -12710.65536 -1090.90732 4810.29844 -4674.80604 -4289.83980
## 74 75 76 77 78 79
## -10471.10794 2312.70156 -5491.61126 892.83893 -6996.65670 317.43304
## 80 81 82 83 84 85
## -2544.92124 -2899.22244 -4156.09553 -799.20488 2077.72218 3595.73959
## 86 87 88 89 90 91
## 395.55922 -546.82754 134.69041 4251.88176 -1133.10369 1158.00286
## 92 93 94 95 96 97
## -2037.97279 -1055.38965 150.93351 255.25182 -7495.70367 2255.56896
## 98 99 100 101 102 103
## -8680.14865 -3153.20899 -4274.05368 -2009.06974 -1527.67061 2927.88650
## 104 105 106 107 108 109
## -2508.44010 2409.82657 -1274.61468 850.11607 2499.16672 -3186.63461
## 110 111 112 113 114 115
## -4803.83942 -999.98369 1759.14258 11600.43300 -1125.19616 2750.85540
## 116 117 118 119 120 121
## 4380.77244 3678.74352 -885.93535 -4547.10153 -3655.21857 2317.76875
## 122 123 124 125 126 127
## -1694.25850 1345.49355 8886.22749 1022.40173 298.82141 -2371.08200
## 128 129 130 131 132 133
## 2744.45508 7176.43629 1240.98859 -8281.71567 1796.30966 4207.11024
## 134 135 136 137 138 139
## -3030.55316 -1355.93211 -821.45288 -3865.22657 1131.09297 -520.01921
## 140 141 142 143 144 145
## -2942.62130 1644.29351 -1915.73146 -7890.62753 1854.12216 -3606.34575
## 146 147 148 149 150 151
## 1933.42894 -368.64738 922.25485 -429.31294 1285.66192 1152.11391
## 152 153 154 155 156 157
## 3347.23177 -4812.39890 -1212.86555 -3288.48198 5856.67788 9760.81270
## 158 159 160 161 162 163
## -3626.59943 -5005.17872 3326.37108 14.47969 2543.12079 -5997.77858
## 164 165 166 167 168 169
## -6922.36899 3891.17502 17231.20519 3772.91616 -212.35669 -2290.48138
## 170 171 172 173 174 175
## -1009.28257 3654.58813 -113.47133 -7979.65166 2813.03853 4327.79209
## 176 177 178 179 180 181
## 698.13695 8823.20941 -9041.64003 -3444.77046 -10779.39075 -11448.89551
## 182 183 184 185 186 187
## 866.03051 8990.54756 -1542.50142 5805.37062 6542.82976 13251.24484
## 188 189 190 191 192 193
## 8721.81485 -3677.91344 2728.29354 10632.12907 -1252.30996 -2136.54934
## 194 195 196 197 198 199
## -10057.81597 -6341.13276 1145.03545 -5294.89000 -9938.37923 5097.68087
## 200 201 202 203 204 205
## -3233.38702 -1909.10025 -1006.41666 6301.67053 9813.24782 669.96496
## 206 207 208 209 210 211
## 3007.70718 3211.30354 5927.02135 13044.89147 -5303.66125 -11058.11763
## 212 213 214 215 216 217
## -5644.39432 -10662.98535 -5314.02371 1234.37934 -13243.89952 15975.12661
## 218 219 220 221 222 223
## 7706.39278 1557.99065 26733.47455 12982.98670 7924.41413 14649.48462
## 224 225 226 227 228 229
## -3155.44581 -1149.49826 4258.76215 833.97938 3160.10327 9405.14924
## 230 231 232 233 234 235
## 6320.41485 -1387.63126 -1409.33729 9758.05503 -11072.06843 -7091.14983
## 236 237 238 239 240 241
## -8494.19200 -10201.15876 2825.46315 1177.98821 -8430.73164 -9241.78402
## 242 243 244 245 246 247
## 8728.37746 -7943.20783 2205.19089 -10510.97578 -4404.19230 1049.48782
## 248 249 250 251 252 253
## 696.66271 -12570.95095 3221.67321 1748.71962 3966.55210 1982.81688
## 254 255 256 257 258 259
## -1264.38056 11025.05385 20950.49469 3576.12742 -3899.88915 4357.83135
## 260 261 262 263 264 265
## -1421.81094 3940.56755 -4623.63683 -10778.24703 -4805.51343 -669.11332
## 266 267 268 269 270 271
## -5331.23203 8565.88659 -4336.19819 4066.31897 -2157.12916 4346.28649
## 272 273 274 275 276 277
## 695.54842 7293.47700 -1317.04380 12076.34465 -4366.10322 1833.37925
## 278 279 280 281 282 283
## -262.49437 7930.87097 -4879.06154 -2662.84344 -11252.11362 -2839.45714
## 284 285 286 287 288 289
## 18459.29034 7886.94290 2931.29131 -426.47961 1061.84163 6537.02786
## 290 291 292 293 294 295
## 7088.69776 -18500.49722 -11190.78095 -8337.77024 9351.84102 2938.77801
## 296 297 298 299 300 301
## -1255.35904 27311.89667 10383.99562 5316.53411 9941.63922 3355.21313
## 302 303 304 305 306 307
## -566.79476 8276.52048 -23858.03656 -3516.68158 -215.84160 -7010.30830
## 308 309 310 311 312 313
## -4113.60230 2748.47068 -9311.71747 -3469.13027 -8441.22063 1225.58183
## 314 315 316 317 318 319
## -3423.77459 1765.23672 -4300.28881 27195.18788 -569.60756 3406.53896
## 320 321 322 323 324 325
## 10969.69576 5857.27930 32685.28530 5833.43616 -20243.23045 2088.55632
## 326 327 328 329 330 331
## 1387.30579 -6214.55081 -1614.35400 -33192.71625 505.93949 -2608.01845
## 332 333 334 335 336 337
## -383.43310 -3413.61127 3834.67401 -590.86323 -7086.20298 -3323.86116
## 338 339 340 341 342 343
## -2408.28857 -7891.10641 3567.78818 -1557.16688 -1912.04269 -1162.98291
## 344 345 346 347 348 349
## 22.37045 356.27150 -1715.20402 -9548.17903 -13425.02111 1945.27692
## 350 351 352 353 354 355
## -4601.16686 -3953.21413 -6279.66785 1414.51098 1122.69737 2549.82138
## 356 357 358 359 360 361
## -3901.69168 -682.55969 529.21909 6897.31115 273.56482 -35.65211
## 362 363 364 365 366 367
## 2586.24720 -2710.74367 -878.07550 -8752.65600 -4747.28488 -6374.01177
## 368 369 370 371 372 373
## -5166.83058 -7500.78509 4709.01219 178.25297 6961.96254 -7674.01942
## 374 375 376 377 378 379
## -2393.60410 -3525.75522 -2625.84170 -12621.82340 1599.87375 -10864.59756
## 380 381 382 383 384 385
## 5360.22619 9126.65393 3072.41097 -2401.54402 1572.12435 6739.02802
## 386 387 388 389 390 391
## 11496.18242 -5579.65005 -5253.10331 -137.47271 8576.50434 1936.91644
## 392 393 394 395 396 397
## 11347.09924 -9627.55808 2852.57195 812.01729 652.65631 -573.19771
## 398 399 400 401 402 403
## -506.68758 -14450.17387 8367.10548 -1199.00616 -1401.92854 6940.11806
## 404 405 406 407 408 409
## -7876.18152 -1349.51578 -2589.38257 -5896.55482 -2994.83482 -4064.27925
## 410 411 412 413 414 415
## -8925.94120 5879.81822 1507.19970 -7462.32091 -7859.11680 13983.66534
## 416 417 418 419 420 421
## 3797.09593 4523.77866 -7951.69607 -4773.48166 -2682.62244 2721.86471
## 422 423 424 425 426 427
## -14053.77761 -3003.73820 -9310.53651 2720.33521 6770.37571 6491.57179
## 428 429 430 431 432 433
## -3972.00404 -4154.84437 -4799.42735 -1911.23853 -5833.70180 -6799.38648
## 434 435 436 437 438 439
## -6177.82954 -1660.32040 -1089.21913 -5187.62491 2340.42945 4671.04134
## 440 441 442 443 444 445
## -5134.03324 -2284.87764 1445.23522 -3923.87278 2716.89989 -6637.84185
## 446 447 448 449 450 451
## -12241.50029 -4775.58888 9366.07082 -2138.93601 4642.88354 -5896.30180
## 452 453 454 455 456 457
## -1215.32928 296.82003 2963.77182 -12275.42145 3208.74289 -6787.54840
## 458 459 460 461 462 463
## 6366.97031 2971.89024 2518.94161 -3795.67386 2092.16854 26.71116
## 464 465 466 467 468 469
## 1829.01859 -459.86792 3402.95579 -2543.27369 5860.10142 -6810.82111
## 470 471 472 473 474 475
## -2934.19811 -2209.22510 -4686.74542 2924.57454 7784.02569 -5917.08717
## 476 477 478 479 480 481
## 1499.61221 -6136.87972 -2880.74153 1952.51061 -12945.01855 -9931.67043
## 482 483 484 485 486 487
## -1475.91304 -222.47589 -1162.04733 -1517.91156 -9745.36697 10837.23133
## 488 489 490 491 492 493
## 6170.34368 7456.34897 -5298.06236 5422.54163 9420.59224 6295.67508
## 494 495 496 497 498 499
## -13176.81579 -10481.46791 -3499.88118 -1192.49399 -603.82228 -7691.47476
## 500 501 502 503 504 505
## 463.01868 4178.94668 5482.75489 721.84430 152.26857 -7166.18692
## 506 507 508 509 510 511
## 545.85893 -5051.01102 1772.90994 -1312.74531 -8178.95108 -719.63563
## 512 513 514 515 516 517
## -2773.44794 -698.60184 1239.12897 -9547.15393 -7927.88568 24051.48635
## 518 519 520 521 522 523
## 9959.42938 6136.14512 -5026.74186 3001.40790 17240.17045 11900.34494
## 524 525 526 527 528 529
## -23620.08220 -4920.52801 -3672.65032 4582.99748 -277.64383 -11031.10313
## 530 531 532 533 534 535
## 4312.74904 13909.66523 -4781.89633 4482.34241 5714.62110 -1571.26404
## 536 537 538 539 540 541
## -4368.77038 -6978.55711 -2104.19785 8300.56878 229.07228 -8043.25005
## 542 543 544 545 546 547
## 1800.42111 -579.23589 385.07767 -11000.38052 -11173.97577 1805.02169
## 548 549 550 551 552 553
## 6837.71578 -1356.52096 795.49768 -7735.27915 8458.51532 940.00568
## 554 555 556 557 558 559
## -11893.83995 9054.33575 8696.47973 256.65403 4998.17127 -3376.48797
## 560 561 562 563 564 565
## 14238.68852 21807.21503 -5906.64777 -9278.80389 6998.48444 516.42702
## 566 567 568 569 570 571
## 3714.68181 -7099.74593 -17159.42274 6569.34422 6454.41676 2015.96323
## 572 573 574 575 576 577
## 3231.75878 1936.54561 -1987.72302 14850.58948 -9327.38626 -6089.25481
## 578 579 580 581 582 583
## 8769.98130 3035.19697 -6345.80577 7602.09233 -3609.14703 -2652.98900
## 584 585 586 587 588 589
## 15780.62463 -14211.36907 8489.41598 246.32733 -6049.95427 -687.41228
## 590 591 592 593 594 595
## 310.16805 -10588.74630 1719.92414 -7174.96319 2956.45120 8823.54405
## 596 597 598 599 600 601
## -7406.61454 5842.01023 2816.84850 6974.15768 -2984.69563 6294.39808
## 602 603 604 605 606 607
## -8079.31246 2343.23483 1387.83854 3268.61003 1661.65271 572.85122
## 608 609 610 611 612 613
## -5642.10759 8153.16749 -994.37621 -2414.50871 -3337.83793 -8162.53338
## 614 615 616 617 618 619
## 11916.60978 5076.24225 -9113.67406 11685.55432 6272.88375 -5284.71576
## 620 621 622 623 624 625
## 26546.18271 -12287.63514 -6475.49592 3341.55270 -3942.41769 -10448.04307
## 626 627 628 629 630 631
## 11289.30527 -21471.76035 -2559.38488 8531.00032 11145.43842 -1375.45204
## 632 633 634 635 636 637
## 33430.02290 -5984.57372 6161.05489 5876.63566 -1766.38696 -4928.02319
## 638 639 640 641 642 643
## -1639.22091 -12183.53047 -2187.38516 -1855.72814 -2505.90878 -2866.29805
## 644 645 646 647 648 649
## 1782.46608 4442.48027 17051.01492 18878.19042 1436.52287 5292.77321
## 650 651 652 653 654 655
## 11127.56382 20758.85490 1571.10789 -27320.51831 -1075.72194 -2062.65540
## 656 657 658 659 660 661
## 2051.90986 -2988.04995 -10471.88887 1661.58556 4265.52941 -894.45749
## 662 663 664 665 666 667
## 13133.04699 1652.22599 2103.61662 -11395.80376 1484.41034 1316.73010
## 668 669 670 671 672 673
## -5018.11718 -7337.54296 2041.79327 -3683.81614 2662.90826 -3330.09157
##
## $fitted.values
## 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
## 17347.41 20140.20 24312.92 24036.27 26344.68 23728.29 24430.92 19754.11
## 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
## 19495.71 16889.22 17651.84 14443.71 14493.90 15145.86 16810.03 15162.14
## 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
## 16177.04 15562.54 22509.69 21611.20 21100.99 22954.90 22293.76 22933.84
## 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
## 24744.54 18788.91 20482.09 28169.70 28226.25 27905.41 25580.11 26955.75
## 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
## 30725.38 31067.15 32449.40 30007.57 34047.78 37194.58 34306.92 31178.73
## 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
## 30048.51 20808.01 28183.10 30573.04 31641.44 38348.91 37853.15 42426.27
## 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
## 46581.61 39419.02 34091.23 29209.02 22484.41 28654.26 25300.22 21668.55
## 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65
## 25992.69 27228.18 27519.52 27923.47 23873.28 40147.60 41956.34 37293.12
## 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73
## 41419.69 46241.43 56705.79 54757.51 40282.62 37836.13 40796.38 35205.41
## 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
## 30744.54 21625.58 24765.90 20769.45 22815.66 17808.71 19785.64 19026.94
## 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
## 18073.24 16179.06 17432.42 20971.55 25304.87 26275.83 26300.31 26905.26
## 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
## 30951.53 29804.43 30784.69 28886.10 28101.21 28462.32 28861.13 22561.29
## 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105
## 25518.72 18682.35 17560.34 15638.50 15932.53 16596.97 20984.15 20085.17
## 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113
## 23529.19 23323.17 24967.26 27789.06 25334.98 21846.41 22116.57 24712.28
## 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121
## 35369.20 33596.57 35398.94 38339.97 40258.51 37991.10 32911.08 29322.37
## 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129
## 31365.40 29678.22 30837.20 38291.74 37941.04 37020.51 33943.97 35691.14
## 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137
## 40985.87 40436.86 31806.69 33047.32 36176.12 32655.36 31073.45 30175.94
## 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145
## 26798.76 28186.16 27960.19 25690.71 27676.45 26327.48 20051.88 23024.49
## 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153
## 20892.71 23812.93 24342.60 25902.60 26081.20 27703.74 28979.63 31953.83
## 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161
## 27510.58 26787.62 24389.61 30171.04 41647.03 40009.18 37424.49 42348.81
## 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169
## 43730.45 47081.06 42633.65 38030.54 43352.08 59342.66 61512.50 59956.91
## 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177
## 56843.28 55273.13 57924.04 56966.79 49406.25 52175.78 55846.86 55882.36
## 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185
## 62874.93 53558.77 50371.82 41356.18 33057.26 36498.45 46408.79 45875.20
## 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193
## 51714.17 57349.33 67926.19 73108.06 66923.28 67113.01 74048.17 69807.26
## 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201
## 65415.67 54865.13 49009.39 50406.46 46085.38 38403.89 44705.82 42967.10
## 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209
## 42611.99 43081.19 49745.32 58464.61 58101.29 59793.13 61417.26 65135.97
## 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217
## 74421.52 66655.69 55070.54 49782.41 40950.88 37966.76 41020.90 31231.87
## 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225
## 47880.89 55061.72 55946.38 78276.58 85628.30 87593.23 95039.45 86163.36
## 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233
## 80276.52 79866.45 76580.47 75757.99 80404.44 81742.63 76284.48 71588.94
## 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241
## 77134.50 64037.58 56226.33 48330.87 40102.82 44214.58 46326.16 39902.07
## 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249
## 33702.48 43788.35 38145.24 42005.69 34417.48 33148.08 36733.48 39503.38
## 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257
## 30508.18 36332.71 40061.45 45156.90 47823.24 47325.52 57429.51 74592.16
## 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265
## 74410.75 67849.31 69302.81 65595.86 67014.35 60891.39 50371.08 46474.40
## 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273
## 46679.80 42860.97 51496.77 47841.11 51908.56 50061.14 54050.74 54341.09
## 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281
## 60243.47 57922.94 67410.96 61451.91 61657.92 60038.56 65671.63 59521.99
## 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289
## 56151.54 45903.60 44331.00 61233.77 66658.14 67059.77 64526.73 63631.54
## 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297
## 67556.02 71391.50 52751.35 43042.63 37168.16 47292.22 50472.07 49602.96
## 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305
## 73336.72 79168.47 79823.36 84347.64 82580.65 77705.91 81106.47 56485.11
## 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313
## 52817.70 52503.59 46412.46 43675.24 47209.72 39904.27 38650.79 33316.28
## 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321
## 37028.49 36225.48 39983.72 38006.67 63300.18 61182.60 62775.16 70620.43
## 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329
## 72962.14 97956.85 96365.52 72657.59 71478.41 69867.12 61972.64 59149.86
## 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337
## 29672.49 33289.59 33720.72 35996.33 35349.75 41006.58 42061.63 37400.00
## 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345
## 36629.43 36753.68 32162.07 38046.45 38697.19 38950.70 39809.77 41561.59
## 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353
## 43348.78 43105.18 36184.59 26932.58 32175.17 31057.93 30655.81 28317.77
## 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361
## 32907.30 36589.89 40968.26 39191.85 40428.07 42525.69 49779.72 50319.79
## 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369
## 50517.61 52933.74 50465.22 49920.37 42706.00 39956.30 36206.26 34027.36
## 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377
## 30160.42 37309.18 39552.47 47287.45 41374.18 40831.90 39397.13 38938.82
## 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385
## 29980.84 34491.17 27675.49 35737.92 45873.73 49371.12 47677.45 49631.11
## 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393
## 55732.53 65036.94 58377.82 52951.62 52685.50 59924.23 60437.62 68940.84
## 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401
## 58254.43 59791.41 59359.92 58853.63 57369.40 56154.60 43165.89 51587.72
## 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409
## 50607.21 49593.17 55872.32 48557.09 47881.38 46239.98 41999.69 40852.71
## 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417
## 38953.51 33160.32 40882.94 43753.46 38527.40 33709.33 48297.33 52068.79
## 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425
## 55923.12 48535.91 44929.34 43630.56 47148.63 35788.60 35522.97 29891.24
## 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433
## 35374.48 43543.29 50304.00 47131.13 44255.71 41239.52 41129.84 37674.82
## 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441
## 33886.83 31173.61 32719.65 34533.77 32576.43 37349.82 43437.03 40251.31
## 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449
## 39962.91 42912.02 40838.39 44751.84 40089.36 31292.59 30152.21 41292.65
## 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457
## 40980.26 46523.73 42243.04 42586.04 44175.66 47822.99 37890.26 42647.12
## 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465
## 38157.60 45582.40 49035.34 51605.96 48397.83 50694.00 50891.70 52605.44
## 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473
## 52112.62 55000.27 52379.47 57334.39 50722.77 48379.23 46992.32 43681.00
## 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481
## 47365.55 54686.66 49219.82 50890.59 45778.74 44188.63 46967.59 36583.53
## 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489
## 30267.77 32101.48 34746.76 36208.34 37155.80 30917.77 43209.23 49742.51
## 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497
## 56442.63 51254.89 55995.84 63484.04 67222.82 53741.04 44498.45 42561.07
## 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505
## 42878.11 43654.19 38245.98 40599.20 45799.67 51373.01 52069.16 52177.62
## 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513
## 45999.57 47314.01 43644.52 46347.46 46019.52 39855.06 40964.59 40155.46
## 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521
## 41240.01 43829.73 36806.31 32175.66 55610.00 63615.14 67198.46 60703.73
## 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529
## 62017.69 75344.37 82188.08 57615.81 52583.65 49341.00 53636.50 53152.25
## 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537
## 43522.97 48419.62 60838.75 55464.09 58796.95 62708.69 59817.48 54942.99
## 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545
## 48529.91 47211.43 54997.21 54752.39 47454.29 49635.52 49465.49 50146.09
## 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553
## 40973.40 32964.84 37223.86 45185.66 44986.50 46659.85 40783.91 49624.99
## 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561
## 50758.27 40732.38 50091.38 57804.20 57181.26 60710.35 56558.31 68094.50
## 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569
## 84464.79 74744.80 63526.52 67861.43 66021.60 67185.60 58916.42 43210.94
## 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577
## 50085.87 55878.32 57038.53 59074.45 59709.15 56890.41 68903.39 58479.54
## 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585
## 52322.30 59778.80 61254.09 54479.91 60626.86 56287.42 53388.38 66699.51
## 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593
## 52406.16 59610.24 58719.95 52561.98 51880.40 52151.17 43044.22 45787.68
## 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601
## 40516.69 44681.46 53277.47 46735.99 52483.15 54815.56 60376.41 56607.89
## 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609
## 61329.74 53059.34 54903.45 55664.96 57929.06 58492.15 58041.68 52330.26
## 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617
## 59257.09 57354.22 54506.84 51275.82 44373.10 55663.61 59476.82 50585.30
## 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625
## 60788.69 64893.72 58507.82 80310.92 65717.78 58193.59 60158.27 55600.33
## 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633
## 46120.27 56623.19 37550.81 37413.71 46799.28 57081.74 55163.69 83344.00
## 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641
## 73717.66 75876.36 77482.39 72309.45 65167.79 61866.39 50002.39 48401.87
## 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649
## 47314.62 45825.87 44241.39 46867.09 51396.27 66081.10 80229.76 77408.08
## 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657
## 78294.58 84053.86 97241.61 92100.38 62938.58 60439.08 57451.66 58417.48
## 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665
## 54926.46 45522.41 47861.18 52096.46 51304.10 62644.92 62524.95 62808.95
## 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673
## 51485.02 52818.56 53817.55 49245.40 43340.21 46317.10 43961.81 47381.95
##
## $shapiro.test
## [1] 0
##
## $levenes.test
## [1] 0
##
## $autcorr
## [1] "No autocorrelation evidence"
##
## $post_sums
## [1] "Post-Est Warning"
##
## $adjr_sq
## [1] 0.8255
##
## $fstat.bootstrap
##
## ORDINARY NONPARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP
##
##
## Call:
## boot::boot(data = x, statistic = f.stat, R = Reps, formula = depvar ~
## ., parallel = parr)
##
##
## Bootstrap Statistics :
## original bias std. error
## t1* 8.173173 0.5325147 3.637891
## t2* 1838.738763 23.0052269 218.990087
## WARNING: All values of t3* are NA
##
## $itsa.plot
##
## $booted.ints
## Parameter Lower CI Median F-value Upper CI
## 1 interrupt_var 3.500747 8.284576 15.39597
## 2 lag_depvar 1524.051170 1848.723615 2245.32546Ahora con las tendencias descompuestas
require(zoo)
require(scales)
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha2=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha2>"2019-W26",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto= dplyr::case_when(gasto=="Gas"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Tina"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Nexium"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="donaciones"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Regalo chocolates"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="filtro piscina msp"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Chromecast"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Muebles ratan"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Vacuna Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Easy"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Sopapo"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="filtro agua"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="ropa tami"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedio"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Entel"~"VTR",
gasto=="Kerosen"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Parafina"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Plata basurero"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Matri Andrés Kogan"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Wild Protein"~"Comida",
gasto=="Granola Wild Foods"~"Comida",
gasto=="uber"~"Transporte",
gasto=="Uber Reñaca"~"Transporte",
gasto=="filtro piscina mspa"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza Alfombra"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza alfombras"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Pila estufa"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Reloj"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Arreglo"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Pan Pepperino"~"Comida",
gasto=="Cookidoo"~"Comida",
gasto=="remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Bendina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Bencina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Vacunas Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
T~gasto)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador, fecha,gasto, .drop=F) %>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=week(parse_date(fecha))) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=tsibble::yearweek(fecha)) %>%#después de diosi. Junio 24, 2019
dplyr::summarise(monto=sum(monto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = fecha, y = monto, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre))) +
#stat_summary(geom = "line", fun.y = median, size = 1, alpha=0.5, aes(color="blue")) +
geom_line(size=1) +
facet_grid(gasto~.)+
#geom_text(aes(x = fech_ing_qrt, y = perc_dup-0.05, label = paste0(n)), vjust = -1,hjust = 0, angle=45, size=3) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Semanas y Meses", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi; Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") +
ggtitle( "Figura 6. Gastos Semanales por Gastador e ítem (media)") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
scale_x_yearweek(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=date_format("%m/%y")) +
guides(color = F)+
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35)) +
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
autoplot(forecast::mstl(Gastos_casa$monto, lambda = "auto",iterate=5000000,start =
lubridate::decimal_date(as.Date("2019-03-03"))))
# scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0,400,by=30))
msts <- forecast::msts(Gastos_casa$monto,seasonal.periods = c(7,30.5,365.25),start =
lubridate::decimal_date(as.Date("2019-03-03")))
#tbats <- forecast::tbats(msts,use.trend = FALSE)
#plot(tbats, main="Multiple Season Decomposition")library(bsts)
library(CausalImpact)
ts_week_covid<-
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(fecha_week)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto,na.rm=T)/1000,min_day=min(day))%>%
dplyr::ungroup() %>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=dplyr::case_when(min_day>=as.Date("2020-03-17")~1,TRUE~0))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=as.factor(covid))%>%
data.frame()
ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na<-ts_week_covid$gasto_total
post_resp<-ts_week_covid$gasto_total[which(ts_week_covid$covid==1)]
ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na[which(ts_week_covid$covid==1)]<-NA
ts_week_covid$gasto_total[which(ts_week_covid$covid==0)]## [1] 98.357 4.780 56.784 50.506 64.483 67.248 49.299 35.786 58.503
## [10] 64.083 20.148 73.476 127.004 81.551 69.599 134.446 58.936 26.145
## [19] 129.927 104.989 130.860 81.893 95.697 64.579 303.471 151.106 49.275
## [28] 76.293 33.940 83.071 119.512 20.942 58.055 71.728 44.090 33.740
## [37] 59.264 77.410 60.831 63.376 48.754 235.284 29.604 115.143 72.419
## [46] 5.980 80.063 149.178 69.918 107.601 72.724 63.203 99.681 130.309
## [55] 195.898 112.066# Model 1
ssd <- list()
# Local trend, weekly-seasonal #https://qastack.mx/stats/209426/predictions-from-bsts-model-in-r-are-failing-completely - PUSE UN GENERALIZED LOCAL TREND
ssd <- AddLocalLevel(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na) #AddSemilocalLinearTrend #AddLocalLevel
# Add weekly seasonal
ssd <- AddSeasonal(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na,nseasons=5, season.duration = 52) #weeks OJO, ESTOS NO SON WEEKS VERDADEROS. PORQUE TENGO MAS DE EUN AÑO
ssd <- AddSeasonal(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na, nseasons = 12, season.duration =4) #years
# For example, to add a day-of-week component to data with daily granularity, use model.args = list(nseasons = 7, season.duration = 1). To add a day-of-week component to data with hourly granularity, set model.args = list(nseasons = 7, season.duration = 24).
model1d1 <- bsts(ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na,
state.specification = ssd, #A list with elements created by AddLocalLinearTrend, AddSeasonal, and similar functions for adding components of state. See the help page for state.specification.
family ="student", #A Bayesian Analysis of Time-Series Event Count Data. POISSON NO SE PUEDE OCUPAR
niter = 20000,
#burn = 200, #http://finzi.psych.upenn.edu/library/bsts/html/SuggestBurn.html Suggest the size of an MCMC burn in sample as a proportion of the total run.
seed= 2125)## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 0 Mon Feb 19 01:44:29 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 2000 Mon Feb 19 01:44:36 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 4000 Mon Feb 19 01:44:42 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 6000 Mon Feb 19 01:44:49 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 8000 Mon Feb 19 01:44:56 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 10000 Mon Feb 19 01:45:02 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 12000 Mon Feb 19 01:45:09 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 14000 Mon Feb 19 01:45:16 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 16000 Mon Feb 19 01:45:22 2024
## =-=-=-=-=
## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 18000 Mon Feb 19 01:45:29 2024
## =-=-=-=-=#,
# dynamic.regression=T)
#plot(model1d1, main = "Model 1")
#plot(model1d1, "components")
impact2d1 <- CausalImpact(bsts.model = model1d1,
post.period.response = post_resp)
plot(impact2d1)+
xlab("Date")+
ylab("Monto Semanal (En miles)")
burn1d1 <- SuggestBurn(0.1, model1d1)corpus <- Corpus(VectorSource(Gastos_casa$obs)) # formato de texto
d <- tm_map(corpus, tolower)
d <- tm_map(d, stripWhitespace)
d <- tm_map(d, removePunctuation)
d <- tm_map(d, removeNumbers)
d <- tm_map(d, removeWords, stopwords("spanish"))
d <- tm_map(d, removeWords, "menos")
tdm <- TermDocumentMatrix(d)
m <- as.matrix(tdm) #lo vuelve una matriz
v <- sort(rowSums(m),decreasing=TRUE) #lo ordena y suma
df <- data.frame(word = names(v),freq=v) # lo nombra y le da formato de data.frame
#findFreqTerms(tdm)
#require(devtools)
#install_github("lchiffon/wordcloud2")
#wordcloud2::wordcloud2(v, size=1.2)
wordcloud(words = df$word, freq = df$freq,
max.words=100, random.order=FALSE, rot.per=0.35,
colors=brewer.pal(8, "Dark2"), main="Figura 7. Nube de Palabras, Observaciones")
fit_month_gasto <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-%m")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto2= dplyr::case_when(gasto=="Gas"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Tina"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Nexium"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="donaciones"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Regalo chocolates"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="filtro piscina msp"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Chromecast"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Muebles ratan"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Vacuna Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Easy"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Sopapo"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="filtro agua"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="ropa tami"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedio"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Entel"~"VTR",
gasto=="Kerosen"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Parafina"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Plata basurero"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Matri Andrés Kogan"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Wild Protein"~"Comida",
gasto=="Granola Wild Foods"~"Comida",
gasto=="uber"~"Otros",
gasto=="Uber Reñaca"~"Otros",
gasto=="filtro piscina mspa"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza Alfombra"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Aspiradora"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza alfombras"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Pila estufa"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Reloj"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Arreglo"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Pan Pepperino"~"Comida",
gasto=="Cookidoo"~"Comida",
gasto=="remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Bendina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Bencina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Vacunas Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
T~gasto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=factor(fecha_month, levels=format(seq(from = as.Date("2019-03-03"), to = as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)), by = "1 month"),"%Y-%m")))%>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto2=factor(gasto2, levels=c("Agua", "Comida", "Comunicaciones","Electricidad", "Enceres", "Farmacia", "Gas/Bencina", "Diosi", "donaciones/regalos", "Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa", "VTR", "Netflix", "Otros")))%>%
dplyr::group_by(fecha_month, gasto2, .drop=F)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto, na.rm = T)/1000)%>%
data.frame() %>% na.omit()
fit_month_gasto_23<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2023",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_22<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2022",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_21<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2021|2022",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_20<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("202",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame() %>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_23 %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_22,by="gasto2") %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_21,by="gasto2") %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_20,by="gasto2") %>%
janitor::adorn_totals() %>%
#dplyr::select(-3)%>%
knitr::kable(format = "markdown", size=12, col.names= c("Item","2023","2022","2021","2020"))| Item | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agua | 5.195333 | 5.410333 | 5.629750 | 6.4634898 |
| Comida | 366.009167 | 310.278417 | 314.087500 | 347.4559184 |
| Comunicaciones | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.0000000 |
| Electricidad | 38.104750 | 47.072333 | 38.297667 | 35.4057347 |
| Enceres | 18.259750 | 20.086417 | 17.443792 | 22.5696327 |
| Farmacia | 4.733250 | 1.831667 | 7.913875 | 8.4729184 |
| Gas/Bencina | 35.219333 | 44.325000 | 28.954333 | 27.0333878 |
| Diosi | 55.804250 | 31.180667 | 41.934250 | 43.2965102 |
| donaciones/regalos | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 7.170083 | 5.6065102 |
| Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa | 0.000000 | 3.944000 | 30.269500 | 18.1524082 |
| VTR | 12.829167 | 25.156667 | 22.121792 | 19.1066939 |
| Netflix | 4.555500 | 7.151583 | 7.090167 | 6.7775714 |
| Otros | 0.000000 | 3.151083 | 1.575542 | 0.7716939 |
| Total | 540.710500 | 499.588167 | 522.488250 | 541.1124694 |
## Joining with `by = join_by(word)`
2. UF Proyectada
Saqué la UF proyectada
#options(max.print=5000)
uf18 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2018.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf19 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2019.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf20 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2020.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf21 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2021.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf22 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2022.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
tryCatch(uf23 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2023.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table"),
error = function(c) {
uf23b <<- cbind.data.frame(Día=NA, variable=NA, value=NA)
}
)
tryCatch(uf23 <-uf23[[length(uf23)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1),
error = function(c) {
uf23 <<- cbind.data.frame(Día=NA, variable=NA, value=NA)
}
)
uf_serie<-
bind_rows(
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2018, uf18[[length(uf18)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2019, uf19[[length(uf19)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2020, uf20[[length(uf20)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2021, uf21[[length(uf21)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2022, uf22[[length(uf22)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2023, uf23)
)
uf_serie_corrected<-
uf_serie %>%
dplyr::mutate(month=plyr::revalue(tolower(.[[3]]),c("ene" = 1, "feb"=2, "mar"=3, "abr"=4, "may"=5, "jun"=6, "jul"=7, "ago"=8, "sep"=9, "oct"=10, "nov"=11, "dic"=12))) %>%
dplyr::mutate(value=stringr::str_trim(value), value= sub("\\.","",value),value= as.numeric(sub("\\,",".",value))) %>%
dplyr::mutate(date=paste0(sprintf("%02d", .[[2]])," ",sprintf("%02d",as.numeric(month)),", ",.[[1]]), date3=lubridate::parse_date_time(date,c("%d %m, %Y"),exact=T),date2=date3) %>%
na.omit()#%>% dplyr::filter(is.na(date3))## Warning: There was 1 warning in `dplyr::mutate()`.
## i In argument: `date3 = lubridate::parse_date_time(date, c("%d %m, %Y"), exact
## = T)`.
## Caused by warning:
## ! 41 failed to parse.#Day of the month as decimal number (1–31), with a leading space for a single-digit number.
#Abbreviated month name in the current locale on this platform. (Also matches full name on input: in some locales there are no abbreviations of names.)
warning(paste0("number of observations:",nrow(uf_serie_corrected),", min uf: ",min(uf_serie_corrected$value),", min date: ",min(uf_serie_corrected $date3 )))## Warning: number of observations:2191, min uf: 26799.01, min date: 2018-01-01#
# uf_proyectado <- readxl::read_excel("uf_proyectado.xlsx") %>% dplyr::arrange(Período) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(Período= as.Date(lubridate::parse_date_time(Período, c("%Y-%m-%d"),exact=T)))
ts_uf_proy<-
ts(data = uf_serie_corrected$value,
start = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01")),
end = as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)])), frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
fit_tbats <- forecast::tbats(ts_uf_proy)
fr_fit_tbats<-forecast::forecast(fit_tbats, h=298)La proyección de la UF a 298 días más 2023-12-31 00:04:58 sería de: 37.564 pesos// Percentil 95% más alto proyectado: 40.778,21
Ahora con un modelo ARIMA automático
arima_optimal_uf = forecast::auto.arima(ts_uf_proy)
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(arima_optimal_uf, h=298), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq(from = as.Date("2018-01-01"),
to = as.Date("2018-01-01")+length(fit_tbats$fitted.values)+298, by = 90)),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01")),
to = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01"))+length(fit_tbats$fitted.values)+298, by = 90)),
tickmode = "array",
tickangle = 90
))fr_fit_tbats_uf<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal_uf, h=298)dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)) %>%
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_uf)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::mutate(variable=factor(variable,levels=c("Lo.95","Lo.80","Point.Forecast","Hi.80","Hi.95"))) %>%
dplyr::arrange(variable) %>%
knitr::kable(format="markdown", caption="Tabla. Estimación UF (de aquí a 298 días) según cálculos de gastos mensuales",
col.names= c("Item","UF Proyectada (TBATS)","UF Proyectada (ARIMA)"))## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables| Item | UF Proyectada (TBATS) | UF Proyectada (ARIMA) |
|---|---|---|
| Lo.95 | 36833.92 | 36828.51 |
| Lo.80 | 36883.04 | 36886.39 |
| Point.Forecast | 37564.03 | 39253.82 |
| Hi.80 | 39365.36 | 43947.75 |
| Hi.95 | 40353.63 | 46432.57 |
3. Gastos proyectados
Lo haré en base a 2 cálculos: el gasto semanal y el gasto mensual en base a mis gastos desde marzo de 2019. La primera proyección la hice añadiendo el precio del arriendo mensual y partiendo en 2 (porque es con yo y Tami). No se incluye el último mes.
Gastos_casa_nvo <- readr::read_csv(as.character(path_sec),
col_names = c("Tiempo", "gasto", "fecha", "obs", "monto", "gastador",
"link"),skip=1) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-%m")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))
Gastos_casa_m <-
Gastos_casa_nvo %>% dplyr::group_by(fecha_month)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=(sum(monto)+500000)/1000,fecha=first(fecha))%>%
data.frame()
uf_serie_corrected_m <-
uf_serie_corrected %>% dplyr::mutate(ano_m=paste0(anio,"-",sprintf("%02d",as.numeric(month)))) %>% dplyr::group_by(ano_m)%>%
dplyr::summarise(uf=(mean(value))/1000,fecha=first(date3))%>%
data.frame() %>%
dplyr::filter(fecha>="2019-02-28")
#Error: Error in standardise_path(file) : object 'enlace_gastos' not found
ts_uf_serie_corrected_m<-
ts(data = uf_serie_corrected_m$uf[-length(uf_serie_corrected_m$uf)],
start = 1,
end = nrow(uf_serie_corrected_m),
frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
ts_gastos_casa_m<-
ts(data = Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total[-length(Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total)],
start = 1,
end = nrow(Gastos_casa_m),
frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
fit_tbats_m <- forecast::tbats(ts_gastos_casa_m)
seq_dates<-format(seq(as.Date("2019/03/01"), by = "month", length = dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), "%m\n'%y")
autplo2t<-
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(fit_tbats_m, h=12), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos (en miles)"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq_dates[seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)]),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)),
tickmode = "array"#"array"
))
autplo2tAhora asumiendo un modelo ARIMA, e incluimos como regresor al precio de la UF.
paste0("Optimo pero sin regresor")## [1] "Optimo pero sin regresor"arima_optimal = forecast::auto.arima(ts_gastos_casa_m)
arima_optimal## Series: ts_gastos_casa_m
## ARIMA(1,0,0) with non-zero mean
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 mean
## 0.2560 1018.5601
## s.e. 0.1297 28.7097
##
## sigma^2 = 28486: log likelihood = -391.87
## AIC=789.74 AICc=790.17 BIC=796.02paste0("Optimo pero con regresor")## [1] "Optimo pero con regresor"arima_optimal2 = forecast::auto.arima(ts_gastos_casa_m, xreg=as.numeric(ts_uf_serie_corrected_m[1:(length(Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total))]))
arima_optimal2## Series: ts_gastos_casa_m
## Regression with ARIMA(1,0,0) errors
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 intercept xreg
## 0.2362 835.0084 6.1375
## s.e. 0.1436 294.8750 9.4651
##
## sigma^2 = 27183: log likelihood = -377.92
## AIC=763.85 AICc=764.6 BIC=772.09forecast_uf<-
cbind.data.frame(fecha=as.Date(seq(as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)])),(as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)]))+299),by=1), origin = "1970-01-01"),forecast::forecast(fit_tbats, h=300)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(ano_m=stringr::str_extract(fecha,".{7}")) %>%
dplyr::group_by(ano_m)%>%
dplyr::summarise(uf=(mean(`Hi 95`,na.rm=T))/1000,fecha=first(fecha))%>%
data.frame()
autplo2t2<-
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(arima_optimal2,xreg=c(forecast_uf$uf[1],forecast_uf$uf), h=12), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos (en miles)"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq_dates[seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)]),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)),
tickmode = "array"#"array"
))
autplo2t2fr_fit_tbats_m<-forecast::forecast(fit_tbats_m, h=12)
fr_fit_tbats_m2<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal, h=12)
fr_fit_tbats_m3<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal2, h=12,xreg=c(forecast_uf$uf[1],forecast_uf$uf))
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m3)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)), dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m2)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::mutate(variable=factor(variable,levels=c("Lo.95","Lo.80","Point.Forecast","Hi.80","Hi.95"))) %>%
dplyr::arrange(variable) %>%
knitr::kable(format="markdown", caption="Estimación en miles de la plata a gastar en el futuro (de aquí a 12 meses) según cálculos de gastos mensuales",
col.names= c("Item","Modelo ARIMA con regresor (UF)","Modelo ARIMA sin regresor","Modelo TBATS")) ## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables| Item | Modelo ARIMA con regresor (UF) | Modelo ARIMA sin regresor | Modelo TBATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lo.95 | 749.5908 | 676.3560 | 750.3598 |
| Lo.80 | 864.6994 | 794.8049 | 834.0495 |
| Point.Forecast | 1082.1447 | 1018.5601 | 1021.9135 |
| Hi.80 | 1299.5900 | 1242.3152 | 1264.5914 |
| Hi.95 | 1414.6985 | 1360.7641 | 1415.5848 |
4. Gastos mensuales (resumen manual)
path_sec2<- paste0("https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/",Sys.getenv("SUPERSECRET"),"/export?format=csv&id=",Sys.getenv("SUPERSECRET"),"&gid=847461368")
Gastos_casa_mensual_2022 <- readr::read_csv(as.character(path_sec2),
#col_names = c("Tiempo", "gasto", "fecha", "obs", "monto", "gastador","link"),
skip=0)## Rows: 66 Columns: 4
## -- Column specification --------------------------------------------------------
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (1): mes_ano
## dbl (3): n, Tami, Andrés
##
## i Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## i Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.head(Gastos_casa_mensual_2022,5) %>%
knitr::kable("markdown",caption="Resumen mensual, primeras 5 observaciones")| n | mes_ano | Tami | Andrés |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | marzo_2019 | 175533 | 68268 |
| 2 | abril_2019 | 152640 | 55031 |
| 3 | mayo_2019 | 152985 | 192219 |
| 4 | junio_2019 | 291067 | 84961 |
| 5 | julio_2019 | 241389 | 205893 |
(
Gastos_casa_mensual_2022 %>%
reshape2::melt(id.var=c("n","mes_ano")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=as.factor(variable)) %>%
dplyr::select(-variable) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = n, y = value, color=gastador)) +
scale_color_manual(name="Gastador", values=c("red", "blue"))+
geom_line(size=1) +
#geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses", subtitle="Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") +
ggtitle( "Gastos Mensuales (total manual)") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
# scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
# scale_x_yearweek(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=date_format("%m/%y")) +
# guides(color = F)+
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35)) +
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
) %>% ggplotly()Session Info
Sys.getenv("R_LIBS_USER")## [1] "D:\\a\\_temp\\Library"sessionInfo()## R version 4.1.2 (2021-11-01)
## Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)
## Running under: Windows Server x64 (build 20348)
##
## Matrix products: default
##
## locale:
## [1] LC_COLLATE=Spanish_Chile.1252 LC_CTYPE=Spanish_Chile.1252
## [3] LC_MONETARY=Spanish_Chile.1252 LC_NUMERIC=C
## [5] LC_TIME=Spanish_Chile.1252
##
## attached base packages:
## [1] grid stats graphics grDevices utils datasets methods
## [8] base
##
## other attached packages:
## [1] CausalImpact_1.3.0 bsts_0.9.10 BoomSpikeSlab_1.2.6
## [4] Boom_0.9.15 scales_1.3.0 ggiraph_0.8.8
## [7] tidytext_0.4.1 DT_0.31 autoplotly_0.1.4
## [10] rvest_1.0.3 plotly_4.10.4 xts_0.13.2
## [13] forecast_8.21.1 wordcloud_2.6 RColorBrewer_1.1-3
## [16] SnowballC_0.7.1 tm_0.7-11 NLP_0.2-1
## [19] tsibble_1.1.4 lubridate_1.9.3 forcats_1.0.0
## [22] dplyr_1.1.4 purrr_1.0.1 tidyr_1.3.1
## [25] tibble_3.2.1 ggplot2_3.4.4 tidyverse_2.0.0
## [28] sjPlot_2.8.15 lattice_0.20-45 gridExtra_2.3
## [31] plotrix_3.8-4 sparklyr_1.8.4 httr_1.4.7
## [34] readxl_1.4.3 zoo_1.8-12 stringr_1.5.1
## [37] stringi_1.8.3 data.table_1.15.0 reshape2_1.4.4
## [40] fUnitRoots_4021.80 plyr_1.8.9 readr_2.1.5
##
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
## [1] uuid_1.1-0 backports_1.4.1 systemfonts_1.0.4
## [4] selectr_0.4-2 lazyeval_0.2.2 splines_4.1.2
## [7] crosstalk_1.2.0 digest_0.6.31 htmltools_0.5.5
## [10] fansi_1.0.4 ggfortify_0.4.16 magrittr_2.0.3
## [13] tzdb_0.4.0 modelr_0.1.11 vroom_1.6.5
## [16] askpass_1.1 timechange_0.3.0 anytime_0.3.9
## [19] tseries_0.10-55 colorspace_2.1-0 xfun_0.39
## [22] crayon_1.5.2 jsonlite_1.8.4 lme4_1.1-35.1
## [25] glue_1.6.2 gtable_0.3.4 emmeans_1.10.0
## [28] sjstats_0.18.2 sjmisc_2.8.9 car_3.1-2
## [31] quantmod_0.4.26 abind_1.4-5 mvtnorm_1.2-4
## [34] DBI_1.2.2 ggeffects_1.4.0 Rcpp_1.0.10
## [37] viridisLite_0.4.2 xtable_1.8-4 performance_0.10.9
## [40] bit_4.0.5 htmlwidgets_1.6.2 timeSeries_4032.109
## [43] gplots_3.1.3.1 ellipsis_0.3.2 spatial_7.3-14
## [46] pkgconfig_2.0.3 farver_2.1.1 nnet_7.3-16
## [49] sass_0.4.5 dbplyr_2.4.0 janitor_2.2.0
## [52] utf8_1.2.3 tidyselect_1.2.0 labeling_0.4.3
## [55] rlang_1.1.3 munsell_0.5.0 cellranger_1.1.0
## [58] tools_4.1.2 cachem_1.0.7 cli_3.6.1
## [61] generics_0.1.3 sjlabelled_1.2.0 broom_1.0.5
## [64] evaluate_0.20 fastmap_1.1.1 yaml_2.3.7
## [67] knitr_1.45 bit64_4.0.5 caTools_1.18.2
## [70] nlme_3.1-153 slam_0.1-50 xml2_1.3.3
## [73] tokenizers_0.3.0 compiler_4.1.2 rstudioapi_0.14
## [76] curl_5.2.0 bslib_0.4.2 highr_0.10
## [79] fBasics_4032.96 Matrix_1.6-5 its.analysis_1.6.0
## [82] nloptr_2.0.3 urca_1.3-3 vctrs_0.6.5
## [85] pillar_1.9.0 lifecycle_1.0.3 lmtest_0.9-40
## [88] jquerylib_0.1.4 estimability_1.4.1 bitops_1.0-7
## [91] insight_0.19.8 R6_2.5.1 KernSmooth_2.23-20
## [94] janeaustenr_1.0.0 codetools_0.2-18 assertthat_0.2.1
## [97] boot_1.3-28 MASS_7.3-54 gtools_3.9.5
## [100] openssl_2.0.6 withr_3.0.0 fracdiff_1.5-3
## [103] bayestestR_0.13.2 parallel_4.1.2 hms_1.1.3
## [106] quadprog_1.5-8 timeDate_4032.109 minqa_1.2.6
## [109] snakecase_0.11.1 rmarkdown_2.25 carData_3.0-5
## [112] TTR_0.24.4#save.image("__analisis.RData")
sesion_info <- devtools::session_info()
dplyr::select(
tibble::as_tibble(sesion_info$packages),
c(package, loadedversion, source)
) %>%
DT::datatable(filter = 'top', colnames = c('Row number' =1,'Variable' = 2, 'Percentage'= 3),
caption = htmltools::tags$caption(
style = 'caption-side: top; text-align: left;',
'', htmltools::em('Packages')),
options=list(
initComplete = htmlwidgets::JS(
"function(settings, json) {",
"$(this.api().tables().body()).css({
'font-family': 'Helvetica Neue',
'font-size': '50%',
'code-inline-font-size': '15%',
'white-space': 'nowrap',
'line-height': '0.75em',
'min-height': '0.5em'
});",#;
"}")))